World Bank forecasts 23% rise in commodity prices in 2026 as energy and food costs surge

The World Bank projected commodity prices rising 23% in 2026, with energy costs up 32%, citing Middle East conflict and supply disruptions.

• The World Bank's October Commodities Markets Outlook forecasts a 23% rise in overall commodity prices this year.
• The bank projects energy prices climbing 32% in 2026, ending three years of decline, with Brent averaging about $92 a barrel.
• It forecasts food prices up 10% in 2026 and a further 7% in 2027, with wheat rising 28% and rice 10% this year.
• The World Bank stated it has provided $8.7 billion in financing to 25 countries affected by the war in the Middle East.
• The bank projected oil supply falling about 5.5 million barrels per day, the largest annual drop in over four decades excluding the 2020 pandemic.
• The World Bank forecast European natural gas prices jumping 58.3% to $19 per million British thermal units on LNG supply risks.
• In a negative scenario, Brent could average $105 in 2027 if additional supplies are disrupted and Russian export restrictions continue.
• The World Bank forecast precious metals prices rising 40% in 2026, with gold averaging $4,600 an ounce and silver $70 an ounce.
• It projected base metals prices up 28%, with copper rising 32.7% to $13,200 per tonne on supply risks and data-center demand.