OECD raises 2026 global growth forecast to 2.9% but warns of 2027 slowdown

The OECD has raised its 2026 global growth forecast to 2.9% while warning that the Middle East conflict and energy prices will slow growth in 2027.

• The OECD raised its 2026 global growth forecast to 2.9%, up from 2.8% in June, after growth of 3.4% last year.
• The OECD cut its 2027 global growth forecast to 3.0% from 3.1%, citing the commodity price crisis from the Middle East conflict.
• The OECD said artificial-intelligence-driven investment strengthened the United States economy and lifted technology exports from Japan and Korea.
• The OECD downgraded the UK's 2027 growth forecast to 1.0% from 1.1% and Canada's 2026 outlook to 0.9% from 1.2%.
• The OECD said the global economy has proven more resilient to the Iran war than expected, citing released oil stockpiles and fuel switching.
• The OECD flagged downside risks from an oil price resurgence, the El Niño weather system, and a potential loss of market confidence in AI companies.
• The OECD cut its UK inflation forecast to 3.1% and raised UK growth forecasts amid government support measures.
• The OECD raised its 2027 global inflation outlook and said persistent price pressures may require further rate hikes in the United States and other major economies.