Climate
Climate Impact Lab projects 451,000 excess heat deaths from super El Niño
September 23, 2026 at 05:29 PM
Coverage
3 reports · over 12 hours
AJAl Jazeera English
Scientists warn super El Nino could cause 450,000 deaths: Should we worry?
(opens the publisher’s site)
AJAl Jazeera English
Powerful El Nino could cause more than 450,000 deaths, scientists say
(opens the publisher’s site)
TGThe Guardian
Huge El Niño projected to cause 450,000 deaths in next six months
(opens the publisher’s site)Climate Impact Lab projects the super El Niño will cause up to 451,000 excess heat-related deaths globally between June 2026 and February 2027.
- The Climate Impact Lab released a report projecting up to 451,000 excess heat deaths between June 2026 and February 2027, based on data from 24,378 regions.
- Nigeria tops the projected toll with 31,400 heat deaths, followed by Indonesia with 19,300 and Sudan with 17,600; the US faces an estimated 3,500.
- The super El Niño has already reached 2.7°C above average last month, with forecasts placing its November–December peak at up to 4°C.
- Otto said the El Niño is unfolding onto a much warmer, human-influenced climate system, worsening the impacts.
- The UN weather agency confirmed the El Niño will persist through February 2027.
- The report projects global land temperatures rising by 1.2°C, with extremely hot days 44% more frequent.
- Researchers said the associated dangers could linger into mid-2027.