Business
US-Iran conflict escalation fuels oil price surge, raises prospect of Australian rate rise
July 14, 2026 at 05:57 AM
US missile strikes and a maritime blockade announced by President Trump have lifted oil prices to one-month highs, increasing the likelihood of a fourth Australian interest rate rise this year.
- US missile strikes on Iran and Trump's announcement of a new maritime blockade have lifted Brent crude oil to US$85 per barrel.
- Vivek Dhar of Commonwealth Bank said continued conflict could push Brent to US$100 within 10 days and US$150 within 10 weeks.
- The federal government's fuel excise relief is set to expire on 2 August, adding 16 cents per litre to petrol prices.
- The Reserve Bank has raised rates three times in 2026 to 4.35%, and markets now see a 23% chance of a hike in August.