Allianz study: Europe's summer heatwaves to cost $128 billion

A study by insurer Allianz Trade estimates Europe's summer 2026 heatwaves will cut output across 30 countries by roughly $128 billion.

• Allianz Trade's study, published September 24, estimates the heatwaves will reduce annual output in 30 countries by about $128 billion, or 0.46% of expected GDP.
• Italy leads projected losses at 27.8 billion euros, followed by Germany at 25 billion and France at 20.1 billion.
• Allianz warned a strong El Niño in 2027 could cost 144 economies $451 billion and raise global food inflation by 0.65 percentage points.
• The WMO projects surface temperatures from 2026–2030 to run 1.3–1.9°C above pre-industrial levels, with an 86% probability of a new record hot year.
• Belgium and the Netherlands each suffered heatwave losses exceeding €9 billion, the study found.
• Allianz said the losses translate into shorter working days and reduced supply-chain efficiency and household purchasing power.