Business
IEA forecasts worsening oil supply deficit in 2026 as Gulf recovery slips to 2027
September 11, 2026 at 10:05 AM
The International Energy Agency's monthly report projects global oil supply will fall more than expected in 2026 because Middle East conflict delays the return of Gulf flows to normal.
- IEA now expects global oil supply to decline 2.5 million barrels per day year-on-year in 2026, up from the 1.6 million barrels forecast in August.
- IEA said global oil inventories fell by about 95 million barrels in August, continuing the drawdown.
- IEA attributed the shortfall to the lack of progress resolving the US-Iranian war, which it said delays the return of Middle East oil flows to normal until 2027.
- IEA said the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz has raised global coal demand, with 2026 consumption now expected to rise 1.2 percent to 8.94 billion tons.