Middle East crude exports surpass pre-war levels despite Hormuz attacks

Shipping data shows Middle East oil exports exceeded pre-war levels last week even as attacks on vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz continued.

• Kepler ship-tracking data showed crude exports exceeded the pre-war average of 18 million barrels per day on four days in late September, reaching 19.5–22.5 million daily.
• The seven-day export average reached 18.5 million barrels per day on 1 October, while September LNG shipments through Hormuz hit their highest monthly level since February.
• Marisks recorded at least seven tanker attacks around Hormuz, including a 1 October projectile strike on supertanker Kazimah 3 that caused a fire; the crew was evacuated unharmed.
• Marisks said commercial ships face an increasingly unpredictable threat, and recent incidents may not reflect deliberate targeting of individual vessels.
• Oil prices fell Monday as Brent dropped 0.7% to $101.50 and WTI declined 1.35% to $89.88 amid the export surge.
• Ships increasingly transit the strait under US naval protection while Saudi Arabia's east-west and the UAE's Fujairah pipelines run at full capacity.
• The G7 approved releasing 100 million barrels from emergency reserves, contributing to the fall in oil prices.
• OPEC+ reportedly postponed a review of 2027 production quotas after the war on Iran disrupted expansion projects.
• IRGC commander Ali Fadavi called daily flows through the Strait of Hormuz 'negligible' and claimed US warships in the region are vulnerable to attack.
• Iran's negotiator said the strait will remain closed until the US accepts Tehran's seven-day reopening plan.
• The UK Maritime Trade Operations reported Iran's Revolutionary Guard warned a tanker to turn back or face targeting; the vessel complied north of Khasab, Oman.
• Aramco CEO Amin Nasser warned oil-market pressure will intensify until Hormuz reopens, citing roughly 3 billion barrels lost and inventories below 6 billion.